Friday, January 04, 2008

3rd Place for Hillary in Iowa?! Major upset.

Oh you know she is SALTY! What the heck happened? Wasn't it only a few months ago everyone was saying (esp. her camp) that she WILL be the nominee. She based her whole campaign on "electability" and "experience". Okay she has been a Senator for only one term longer than Obama and has the highest negatives of any of the nominees. I think Chris Rock sums up her whole experience with this, from the NYTs review: While discussing Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign, he mocked the notion that she had presidential experience, explaining that marriage doesn’t confer professional expertise. By way of example, he mentioned his own marriage.

“I’ve been with my wife for 10 years now,” he said. “If she got onstage right now, y’all wouldn’t laugh at all.”

This is a big set back for Senator Clinton. Of course she can still be the nominee. Dukakis came in third in Iowa. The difference is the turnout. It was huge, with many new voters. Younger people, first time voters and Independents really pushed Senator Obama to the top. The caucuses are interesting. It's a time commitment. You have to go to these meetings that can last an hour to voice your vote. That so many people came out sends a clear message, voters want a change. Senator Clinton also lost the women's vote. Ouch.

Edwards and Obama better watch out. It's going to get very ugly. Team Clinton will get down and dirty. I read the race is tight in New Hampshire as well but South Caroline is going to be a battle royale. I'm sure the "poverty pimps" are pissed about Obama's win. They will try to dismiss him as "suspect" because you know all those white people in Iowa voted for him.

If I was Senator Clinton I would be very worried about my poll numbers among women and new/young voters. That should be her base.

On the Republican side, Huckabee was outspent by 10 million dollars and still won. His base is Evangelicals and Born Agains so not sure how he is going to do in New Hampshire where they are a much smaller part of the populaion. Romney has to do well in New Hampshire or it's over. He is the fomer Gov. of the state next door.

That these two major underdogs won last night has shocked the establishment. This is going to be a very, very interesting primary.

9 comments:

gibber said...

All I have to say is OH SNAP! Obama KILLED it last night, and that speech he gave gave me CHILLS. Shades of Bobby Kennedy for real.

My goodness. O and JRE better watch out. But my colleagues say that it will be very hard for her to go negative on him. People are over the bitterness of the past few years and I think that will only hurt her if she does.

Buckle your seatbelts peeps. It's going to be a BUMPY ASS RIDE!

erin said...

oh yes indeed...this will be very interesting. I've been following closely. I know everyone is ready for a change and it will be nice to see what happens!

Jen of A2eatwrite said...

I've said it on two other blog responses today - I feel hope for America for the first time in a llllloooooonnnnnnnggggggg time.

It's a good day.

And btw... our news was all local, too. Then the BBC came on and the first story was Kenya, with the number 2 story being the Iowa Caucus. Sad, no? We could learn some lessons from our neighbors across the pond.

nyc/caribbean ragazza said...

gibber - ha. You know Bill Clinton is cursing up a storm right about now. Who thought it was a good idea to run a general election message during the primary? BC could run on a triangulation message because he was a very conservative democrat from a conversative southern state. HC? Nope she can't.

Curious to see how she bounces back. You are right going even more negative might hurt her. It plays into her major weaknesses.

Erin - I agree. I'm encouraged by all the young people and first timers who are voting. Politics has been so cynical for a while it's nice to see being engaged.

jen - even if one doesn't support either of the candidates that won, that the turnout was so strong (in freezing ass weather) is amazing!

The local news here is truely awful. There is too much entertainment news. The Britney coverage really pissed me off.

Liz said...

It was something watching how easy-breezy Hillary was trying to act today. She needs an Academy Award for her performance. I hope she's asking herself some hard questions about why she lost. And I'm sure Bill got no play last night.

On the other hand, bet the Luther got busted out on the Obama plane! LOL!

nyc/caribbean ragazza said...

liz - ha! I could see Michelle putting on "If Only for One Night". I'm thinking Foreigner's "You're As Cold As Ice" for Team Clinton.

J.Doe said...

The evangelical Christians in the midwest USA might be very happy with Huckabee's win in Iowa, but his religious campaign is just not going to work in the states that are on both coasts and view the constitutional separation of church and state as a serious issue, not just a waste of ink.
I'm not a Republican, but I am very disappointed in the Iowa election, and to be fair, i am not impressed with the democratic candidates either. Edwards came in second? That's scary.

homebody at heart said...

Hi nyc/carbibean ragazza,

I been reading your posts on other blogs. Can't wait to read about your life in Rome when you get there.

I think that the scariest thing about Huckabee is that his largest growth support area came from young womem. This from a man who took out a full page ad in the newspaper to say that women should graciously submit to their husbands wishes. Glad to know that we have come so far.

nyc/caribbean ragazza said...

j. doe - I agree with you about Huckabee I don't think his campaign will do as well nationally.

homebody - hello! thanks for stopping by my blog.

Yes, Huckabee is great off the cuff, is an excellent speaker (I would hope so, he is a Baptist minister) but once his more conservative views become better known it will be a problem in certain states.